UPS has had a volatile ride in 2026, and its underperformance over the last few years has been evident. This has been especially glaring considering the strong advances seen in the S & P 500 and many other indexes since the 2023 lows. The reason we’re profiling it now is that the chart is beginning to show encouraging signs of a turnaround across multiple time frames. Starting with the short-term view, UPS has rebounded strongly from its May downturn and has rallied back to the $110 area — a level it tested in early and late May, as well as several times in June. This price action has formed a clear potential bullish cup-and-handle pattern. A breakout above the pattern’s upper resistance line would trigger a measured move target of $128, putting the stock well above its highest level of 2026. From a trading perspective, a stop loss near $104 makes sense, as it sits close to the handle of the formation. That’s the type of risk-management approach we typically use with pattern-based trade recommendations. If and when this bullish daily chart pattern plays out, it could set the stage for an even larger base to develop. That’s looking a few steps ahead, but it’s worth keeping in mind. On the weekly chart, going back to the middle of 2023, we can see the potential for a much larger rounding bottom to take shape. If UPS can rally back to its 2026 high and eventually break above it, this entire structure could be viewed as one broad-basing formation. That would encompass roughly 18 months of price action, with the most recent nine months developing from the late-2025 low. As is often the case, we focus on shorter-term strength first, because sustained breakouts on the daily chart frequently lay the groundwork for much larger bullish patterns to emerge over time. This is the same weekly chart, this time with the key moving averages and the 14-week relative strength index, or RSI, displayed below. As is typically the case when a stock begins reversing after a prolonged downtrend, the improvement becomes evident in the moving averages. Throughout most of the decline, UPS traded below each of its key moving averages: 13-week (green) 14-week (red) 16-week (blue) Over the last few months, that has begun to change. Not only has UPS spent the majority of its time above all three moving averages, but each of them has also started to curl higher. The ideal scenario from here is to see those averages continue rising while also serving as support during future pullbacks. The 14-week RSI in the lower panel is telling a similar story. Throughout the downtrend, every rally attempt stalled with the RSI peaking near the midpoint of the scale, around 50, a classic sign of weak momentum. That behavior has shifted in recent months. While the indicator has briefly dipped below the mid-point a few times, it has spent most of its time between 50 and overbought territory. That represents a clear change in character, suggesting upside momentum has improved. Continuing to see the RSI hold above the midpoint during future pullbacks would provide additional evidence that this potential turnaround remains intact. Lastly, the relative performance chart versus the S & P 500 highlights just how significant UPS’s underperformance has been. From 2023 through the end of 2025, the chart almost looks like a crash, reflecting the S & P 500’s strong advance while UPS continued to struggle. After bottoming late last year and stabilizing throughout 2026, however, there are early signs that this trend may be beginning to reverse. The relative chart is attempting to form a higher low, while the monthly relative RSI has also turned higher after reaching deeply oversold levels. Importantly, it is trying to hold near or above the 30 zone, another encouraging sign that downside relative momentum may be fading. Together, these represent two meaningful long-term improvements from a relative performance perspective. The bottom line is that UPS has been out of favor (and off many investors’ radar screens) for several years, and understandably so. However, the recent technical improvements suggest that could be starting to change. With signs of strengthening on both an absolute and relative basis, UPS is becoming a stock worth monitoring closely as a potential longer-term turnaround candidate. —Frank Cappelleri Founder: https://cappthesis.com DISCLOSURES: None All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, or its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. 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A turnaround is unfolding for this beat-up shipping stock, charts show
